Happy New Year, and welcome back! With the year 2025 in full swing, so is the action at the ATP 250 Brisbane tournament. In the quarterfinal, there is an exciting match lined up between Australia's home favorite Jordan Thompson and Bulgarian ace Grigor Dimitrov. Both are in decent form and hungry to make a semifinal berth. As the first big tournament of the season, this is an important test for both men as they try to establish momentum for the rest of the year. Will hometown hero Thompson edge past seasoned Dimitrov? Let's look at the key details
What are your thoughts on this match? Who do you think will come out victorious? Share your predictions in the comments below!
Claim Your Welcome BonusJordan Thompson
Jordan Thompson has been consistently good so far in Brisbane. His wins over Matteo Berrettini and Alex Michelsen showed he can win the ugly matches, but the solid serving game is his primary weapon, and the stats bear that out: 3 aces landed in the Round of 16 and saving 87% of break points against him just proves the mental toughness when in pressure situations.
But the aggressive return game that is still coming along will be big for Thompson in his matchup with Dimitrov, who has a strong serve and can get very hot if given free points. Thus, the ability to break serves should define the outcome of this match for Thompson.
Thompson did appear composed during the Round of 16 win against Alex Michelsen, keeping a 68% first serve percentage and converting 3 out of 5 break points. That precision and clarity of mind will need to continue if he is to keep Dimitrov on the back foot.
Grigor Dimitrov
Grigor Dimitrov comes into this match in a streak of good form. His straight-set wins over Yannick Hanfmann and Aleksandar Vukic have kept him in control, though his recent statistics raise a few questions. His match against Vukic was especially notable for his serving: 12 aces, 1 double fault. However, the weakness of Dimitrov's return game in the Round of 16-only 2 break points taken out of 7-is indicative that he might be caught in trouble if Thompson starts pressuring his second serve.
Dimitrov is known for his fluid game, playing with finesse on every area of the court. His only weakness against players often comes when they can absorb his power and play consistently. That could be a problem as Thompson disrupts his opponent's rhythm with well-placed returns and steady serving.
Head to Head
Dimitrov has had the better of their previous meetings, winning 2 out of 3 encounters. The only time Thompson won, it was on home soil, and he will look to draw confidence from that previous win. Dimitrov won their last encounter at the 2024 Tokyo Open, but the form of Thompson this year is arguably stronger than in seasons past, which makes the head-to-head a little more unpredictable this time around.
Expert Betting Tips
Dimitrov has been serving all through his campaign so far, clocking up to 12 aces against Vukic, while Thompson also reached his best moments of serving in such crucial junctures. If Thompson can stand toe to toe with Dimitrov in power on serve and use his first serve accordingly, as was seen in the previous round when he posted a 68% first serve percentage, he will neutralize Dimitrov's attacking game.
It might be a question of who can make use of the break points. Thompson saved 87% of break points against in his R16 match to win in straights and really rose to the occasion. Dimitrov, on the other hand, struggled to take advantage of break points against Vukic, converting just 2 of 7. If he is able to stay focused at moments that count most, Thompson might have the slight edge in this regard.
Thompson has the home-court advantage, and his recent win in Brisbane will give him a lot of confidence. Dimitrov, though, is a seasoned pro who has weathered plenty of tough matches over the years. His experience might turn out to be the key in the later parts of the match, but Thompson has proved he is not afraid of bigger names. Much of this match will come down to the mental part of the game.
- Over 21.5 Games @ 1.62 Odds
- Total sets 3 @ 2.21 Odds
- Jordan Thompson to Win a Set @ 1.61 Odds
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