The Australian Open is finally back, and with that the mouth-watering first-round game between Netherlands's Botic van de Zandschulp against local favorite Alex de Minaur. With all the contrasting style and stakes that are running really high, this game promises excitement from all corners. As Van de Zandschulp seeks to find momentum again, De Minaur seeks to prolong a great beginning of 2025 and put up an electric display at Melbourne. In this intriguing game between grit and guile, where does each guy sit in the box? Let's dive in and look at what to expect from either player.
Claim Welcome BonusBotic Van De Zandschulp
Coming into this match, the Dutchman will be considered an underdog, though he is quite used to overcoming adversity. Currently lying in the rank of ATP 82, Botic's career has been marred by gradual, though unspectacular, improvement. The 95-91 career win-loss record points to his consistency but also signals how he struggles to break into the echelon of the cream of the sport.
Statistically, Van de Zandschulp has relied heavily on his serve, with a 63% first-serve percentage and 71% of points won on his first serve. However, he is less effective when returning, with only 31% of first-serve return points won and a modest 38% break-point conversion rate. These numbers underpin his struggle to put pressure on opponents' service games, which could very well be an issue against the speedy and resilient De Minaur.
The best performance that Botic has shown at the Australian Open was reaching the third round back in 2022. Last year, however, he lost to Jannik Sinner in the first round, further establishing his tendency to struggle against superior opponents. This year, does he manage a comeback in Melbourne?
Alex de Minaur
The Aussie world number 8 Alex de Minaur heads into the Australian Open with high expectations and a career-best ranking. De Minaur is an incredible speedster who can be defensive or use his ever-growing offensive arsenal. He is, in short, the darling of Melbourne.
De Minaur's career stats further underline his effectiveness on all counts of the court: with a first-serve percentage of 59% paired with a 71% first-serve points won rate and a break-point conversion of 43%, he is surely one of the most complete players on tour. The improved aggressiveness has also let him dictate more and more points-a crucial factor in his rise up the rankings.
His Australian Open record has been good, with a run to the fourth round in three consecutive years: 2022–2024. The Aussie fell to Andrey Rublev in a five-set thriller last year but has shown he can rise to the occasion on home soil. With a 2-0 start to 2025, De Minaur will look to build on his momentum and avoid any early surprises.
Expert Betting Tips
This is a real contrast in styles as the big-serving game of Van de Zandschulp meets the speed and counterpunching ability of De Minaur. The key for Botic will be to keep his first-serve percentage high and find a way to end points quickly. However, De Minaur's retrieval skills and ability to extend the rallies will put immense pressure on the Dutchman for consistency.
Advantageous return stats on, De Minaur comes into this contest with 32% first-serve return points won to Botic's 31%, and in terms of break-point conversion, he holds a slight edge at 43% to the Aussie's 38%. Adding to this will be the energy from an enthusiastic home crowd. Unless Botic can throw big serves up and start being aggressive to take De Minaur out of his rhythm, this is a heavy lean to the Australian.
Alex de Minaur to Win in Straight Sets: Given the consistency of De Minaur in Melbourne and the problems that Van de Zandschulp has against the big guns, backing the Aussie to win in straight sets is a good bet. (Bet365: 1.66 Odds)
Under 30.5 Total Games: With De Minaur leading the match and winning in straight sets, the total games may be under 30.5. (Betway: 1.88 Odds)
Alex de Minaur to Break Serve First: Given De Minaur's superior return game and the vulnerability of Van de Zandschulp on second serve, it is highly likely that the Aussie will secure the first break of the match. (1xbet: 1.25 Odds)
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