The ATP Tour Finals get underway in Turin with the mouth-watering Group B encounter between two leading stars: German Alexander Zverev and Russian Andrey Rublev. The world number two, Zverev comes into this competition after a sensational five-match unbeaten run and straight from a convincing victory over Ugo Humbert in the final at the ATP Paris. 9th seed Rublev has been resolute in the tournament so far, given his recent losses and fitness concerns; he last defeated Lorenzo Sonego. The last few hardcourt meetings have gone firmly Zverev's way, and he will need to battle to stop that run continuing here.
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Whereas Zverev and Rublev enter this match with various strong factors, lately, the form of Zverev on the hard courts has combined confidence and consistency, very important on indoor conditions in Turin. Leading in base line exchange and serve-and-volley play, underpinned by serve and return statistics, is where Zverev's serve and return stats come in handy, thanks to a 61% first-serve success rate with high points won on both serves. On the other side, Rublev is very aggressive and has forehand shots that are very powerful. While recently, Rublev has looked beset with health problems and inconsistencies, staying power and the conversion of break points could prove pivotal. A question begging an answer would be whether Rublev can nullify Zverev's dominance on indoor hard courts.
Zverev leads the overall head-to-head 6-4 against Rublev, and he also leads their outdoor hardcourt encounters by four straight matches. In their last encounter in the 2023 ATP Finals, Zverev still won in straight sets 6-2, 6-3, and here, it did highlight just how incapable Rublev seemed to transcend his opponent's power and tactical superiority. Overcoming his opponent's psychological edge will be as important as the physical changes for Rublev.
Tactical Approach
Alexander Zverev: Most probably, Zverev will use his powerful serve and aggressive return game. Coming in at 91% first-serve win rate and 79% second-serve rate, Zverev has the statistical upper hand in service games. He will try to capitalize on the second serve of Rublev by attacking the weaker return statistics of his opponent to get breaks. Besides, one thing that has clicked for Zverev in recent matches is the ability to stay concentrated when the pressure gets high, especially against players like Rublev.
Andrey Rublev: He needs to be in control of rallies with his strong forehand, forcing errors and keeping a high first-serve percentage. To do this, Rublev will need to raise his level of return, particularly against the German's second serve, off which he won only 55% of his points in his last match. The relatively higher number of aces that Rublev hit in Metz could hint at some serving firepower to remain competitive, but he will have to convert break points if he is going to stay in contention.
Expert Betting Tips
With Zverev in better form, having an edge from the mental side of things with recent wins, serve consistency, and the ability to convert at break-point opportunities, he's the strong favorite. His strong serve statistics and unbeaten streak against Rublev hard courts add to his chances.
With Zverev very confident at this stage of the tournament and Rublev having been inconsistent as of late, this match could quite likely go straight sets. The potential of Zverev to just dominate on serve and not give Rublev much rhythm could keep Rublev off guard and result in a possible two-set win.
Given both players just came from under 21.5 games, the efficiency of Zverev's game plus the returning struggles of Rublev mean this could be a short affair. We should expect him to take advantage of early breaks and just control the match toward a lower total count of games.
- Under 24.5 Games @ 1.6 Odds
- Alexander Zverev Wins 2-0 @ 1.90 Odds
- Alexander Zverev (-2.5) Games Handicap @ 1.66 Odds
Other predictions
