Steve Garcia vs Melquizael Costa Prediction: Garcia expected to shock Costa in this one

Steve Garcia and Melquizael Costa are set to face each other in UFC Vegas 83 at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Steve Garcia is on a two-fight winning streak, marking the first time he has achieved consecutive victories in his UFC career. On the other hand, Melquizael Costa recently secured his first win in the UFC by defeating Austin Lingo through a unanimous decision.

In Steve Garcia's previous bout, he faced Shayilan Nuerdanbieke and secured a victory with a body punch in the second round. Nuerdanbieke landed 31 of 63 total strikes in the fight, while Steve Garcia finished the bout landing 50 of 77 total strikes. Regarding significant strikes, Nuerdanbieke connected on 18 of 35, achieving a 51% accuracy, with 15 of 31 significant strikes targeting the head. In terms of Steve Garcia's stats, he landed 42% of his significant strikes, connecting on 17 of 40 attempts. Out of the significant strikes thrown, 14 of 37 were aimed at the head. Notably, 44% of Nuerdanbieke's significant strikes and 70% of Steve Garcia's were thrown from a distance.

In Melquizael Costa's last bout, he faced off against Austin Lingo and secured a victory via unanimous decision in the third round. During the fight, Austin Lingo achieved a 100% connection rate on significant strikes from a distance, while Costa successfully connected on 93% of his significant strikes from a distance. Costa landed 45% of his significant strikes, totaling 100 out of 220 attempts, with 39 of them targeting the head out of 133 attempts. In comparison, Austin Lingo connected on 39 of 139 significant strikes, with 24 of them targeting the head out of 114 attempts. Regarding total strikes thrown, Lingo connected on 39 of 140, while Melquizael Costa successfully landed 108 of 236 strikes thrown in total.

Steve Garcia distinguishes himself with notable striking accuracy and a significant reach advantage. His high takedown defense rate suggests an ability to keep the fight standing, where he is most effective. On the other hand, Melquizael Costa presents an interesting challenge with a higher strike rate and superior overall defense, making him a formidable opponent. However, my pick leans towards Steve Garcia due to his reach advantage, precise striking, adept takedown defense, and ability to control the pace effectively.