Dominick Reyes vs Ryan Spann Prediction: A Winner inside the distance

Two years after fighting for the UFC light heavyweight championship and just over a year after having his face smashed to pieces, Dominick Reyes is back in the Octagon. The number seven light heavyweight ranked fighter will face fellow American Ryan Spann in the prelims of UFC 281. While Reyes just needs to get back in the win column, Spann will be working at moving up the rankings. We preview the fighters, look at their key stats and predict the outcome.

The 32-year-old debuted in the UFC in 2017, announcing himself with a Performance of the Night. Three years and half a dozen wins later, he lost to Jon Jones in a controversial unanimous decision for the UFC light heavyweight championship. Many media outlets gave Reyes the victory. In his next fight in September 2020 he got a second opportunity to contest for the championship after Jon Jones vacated. He lost to Jan Blachowicz by a second round TKO. His last fight was a back and forth contest against Jiri Prochazka that saw “The Devastator” suffer his third straight loss and a fractured face. Reyes had some good moments in the early parts of the fight but Prochazka overwhelmed him with volume before winning by knock out. The bout was declared Fight of the Night.

The 31-year-old’s last four fights have ended in the first round. In those four bouts, Ryan Spann has won two Performance of the Night bonus awards and two victories. Number twelve in the Light Heavyweight rankings, Spann secured a submission over Ion Cutelaba this past May to return to the win column. “Superman” showed a lot of composure in the chaotic contest. A victory here may well push him into the top ten rankings and closer to a championship duel. Spain is 6-2 in the UFC. A decent record in the elite promotion for the former LFA light heavyweight champion.

Reyes is a huge favorite with the oddsmakers. For a fighter who has not competed in over a year and who was battered and injured in his last fight, the optimism of the sportsbooks is interesting. Since unfairly losing to Jones for the light heavyweight crown, Reyes has struggled. His body has also taken a hit. Usually, fighters on a skid try harder. That, along with his pedigree and successes in the promotion may have influenced the odds. All things being equal, Reyes should comfortably win but the past few years have been tough for him. With a competent foe like Ryan Spann, who can be very good in bursts and packs a punch, this fight may be less than straight forward. Spann is looking forward to climbing up the rankings and Reyes looks like he has given up the challenge. We think the fight will end inside the distance but definitely not in the first round.

• Over 1.5 rounds at 1.89 odds on BetKing
• W1 by KO, TKO, DQ or Submission at 1.95 odds on Bet 365
• Bout will be won by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.65 on 1XBET