Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas Prediction: Portland Timbers are strong favorites

The MLS match between Portland Timbers and FC Dallas on 7 October 2024 is going to be very important for either side as both aim to reach the playoffs. Portland currently sits 9th in the West with a record of 12 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses this season and has gone through bad times lately not to have won in three recent games. Meanwhile, Dallas sit 11th with 10 wins, 7 draws, and 15 losses. A win either way could go a long way into their ambitions of playoff qualification with both teams fighting for form and consistency at the tail end of the regular season.

Portland's home turf advantage may prove to be the clincher in this encounter, but form is a barrier. They have managed just 5 points from their last 5 games, having narrowly lost at home to Austin in their last outing 1 goal to nil. Although Portland bossed the game with 59% of possession, they did not capitalize on open play since the keeper was never called into action, and further failed to capitalize on the 4 big chances.

Portland usually plays in a 4-2-3-1 formation. They are highly dependent on wide playing and fullbacks overlapping. In their last encounter with Austin, 47% of their passes were long balls, and 26% of them were crosses to show how they directly attack from the wing. They have won 51% of duels, so they remain competitive in midfield; however, in defending tackles, they have less effectivity, having a rate of 46%. Expect them to try bossing possession once more, now with home advantage, and go forward to take control of the tempo early in the game. With that said, Portland averaged 59% possession in their last game, and they should be expected to continue in dominance of the ball, now on home soil. Their midfield will look to retain the ball and circulate it in order to open up Dallas' defense with some sustained pressure.

Portland even managed to create 4 big chances against Austin in defeat. If they can sharpen up their finishing, this could prove to be the deciding factor in their attack.

Conceding 6 goals in their last 5 games and only winning 46% of tackles in key defensive areas has been the repeated problem. If they do not tighten it, they risk being exposed by Dallas' attacking play.

This is evident by the fact that despite the three points in Austin, only ten shots were on target, and no goal was scored. Lack of clinical finishing might hurt them going into a team like Dallas, which has been resilient in defense.

Dallas come into this match off a 3-2 loss to San Jose and have shown attacking intent themselves but also remain defensively vulnerable, conceding 11 goals in the last five encounters. Both teams have shown attacking strengths, with both teams scoring (GG) in 4 of Portland's last 5 and 6 of Dallas' last 7.

Dallas lined up in a 3-4-1-2 formation, the system designed to utilize width through the wing-backs but with three central defenders to cover their defensive frailties. However, they have had a fragile defense, conceding in the last four games, with their success rate in duels - 43% - showing that they can be overrun in midfield. Still, they are playing a high-risk and high-reward game, often playing directly, with 56% of their passes being long balls and 33% crosses. Their ability to defend tackles well-85% success-may be important in frustrating Portland's wide play.

Dallas' 3-4-1-2 gives them flexibility into wide areas, with overloads in wide areas before delivering crosses into dangerous areas. With 33% of their play crossed into the box, they will look to stretch the Portland defense. Their impressive 85% success rate in defensive tackles could be very important in keeping Portland's wide players at bay and forcing speculative efforts from distance.

Dallas has let in a total of 11 goals in the last 5 games, and that should be a concern going into this fixture. The way they get exposed to transition and quick counterattacks may be a point that Portland will try to use to their advantage, especially if they press high.

In the last game, Dallas committed 16 fouls and received 4 yellow cards. An aggressive nature of play could result in bookings early in the game, leading to further defensive problems for the team, especially if they get down to 10 men on the field.

Historically, Dallas has the better record in this encounter. In their last 20 meetings, it stands at 9 wins to Dallas, 5 wins to Portland, and 6 draws. The last time that these two met was in July of 2024. On this occasion, Dallas managed a thrilling 3-2 home victory. As well as this recent result, Dallas's historical dominance over Portland could give them some much-needed confidence for this match due to their recent run of poor form. This has often been a goal-laden encounter from both teams, with BTTS in 4 of their last 5 H2H meetings-a game that could see plenty of action in front of goal.

With attacking tendencies from both sides and their defensive weaknesses, this match is highly likely to see both teams score. Defensive lapses from Portland matched up with the leaky backline of Dallas suggests goals for both teams.

With Dallas' recent involvement in high-scoring matches, with over 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 matches, there will likely be plenty of goals in this match, considering Portland's penchant for creating chances.

While Dallas has had the better H2H record, Portland's home turf and Dallas' dire recent form-most especially in defence-means the result points towards Portland's favor, though not by much. A Portland win or even a draw is a safe bet.

• Home/Draw & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.65 Odds
• GG + Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.6 Odds
• Goal Range 2-4 @ 1.6 Odds