Auxerre vs Stade Brest Prediction: The signs look good for Brest

Auxerre welcome Brest to the Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps on September 27, 2024, in the Ligue 1. Both teams enter this match with contrasts in both form and ambitions. Auxerre is currently sitting 16th, which is struggling, and they will want to stop this dreaded run of form; they have lost four of their last five matches. Brest lie in 11th and have been more inconsistent but enter this game off the back of a convincing home win against Toulouse.

Auxerre need a response to arrest their slide, while Brest seek continuity as they edge closer to the European spots.

Auxerre started the 2024-25 season of Ligue 1 very badly, as they gathered only one win and four losses from the first five games. Such current form with a run of four defeats, also leaking six goals in two games, has given big cause for alarm. They were competitive in the last game as well, a 3-2 defeat away to Montpellier. However, the team's issues in defense continue to be an issue. They have shown glimpses of offensive promise through players like Hamed Junior Traore and Ado Onaiwu, but their attacking output remains inconsistent.

Most of Auxerre's struggles have been defensive. Even fielding five at the back in their last outing, they somehow still leaked three goals in a shaky display of organization at the back. Fragile-looking defensive structure, particularly from long balls and crosses, backed by stats such as 41% success rate in duels, long balls of 41%, and crosses of 41% used to initiate an attack. This defensive vulnerability is further compounded by the team's indiscipline: an average of 4 yellow cards per game and 20 fouls in the last match-in. They usually concede early, which forces them into chasing games-something they are not well-equipped to handle.

Auxerre's 5-4-1 formation has just not paid dividends in terms of defensive solidity, and this is clearly something that is going to have to be revised for the coming game. A more compact midfield and quicker transition from back to front could ease some pressure off their backline. Given Brest's effectiveness in duels and tackles, Auxerre's best opportunity might well come through quick counter-attacks and set pieces. They will need to be more decisive in these moments to take advantage of Brest's occasional lapses in concentration on the road. Hamed Junior Traore will be important with regards to connecting defense and attack, while Ado Onaiwu's positioning and finishing ability at the end of the moves will be critical.

The visitors come into this match at a better level, having won three of their last five matches. Brest registered an easy 2-0 win over Toulouse in their last outing-an encouraging display of solidity that further boosted the confidence of the Bretagnes. With Mama Baldé and Romain Faivre in good form, Brest can be dangerous going forward. Their campaign so far has pretty much hinged on taking control of the games, preferably with the lead. Brest have opened the scoring in four of their five matches so far. They are likely to adopt a similar approach against this fragile Auxerre defense.

Brest are more defensively sound. Their 67% tackle success rate in defense underlines their capability of strangling opposition attacks, while the midfield operates well in a 4-3-1-2 shape for good balance between attack and defense. Brest dominates duels, tends to have a 48% success rate in this regard, and has handled transitions rather well, especially away from home. Another strong point is the capability to capitalize on fewer possession-based opportunities, efficiency in front of goal, while players like Mama Baldé and Romain Faivre can turn half-chances into goals.

Brest will most likely stick with what works: the 4-3-1-2 that relies on a decent defensive core and capitalizes on Auxerre's weaker moments in that regard. They will likely sit deep, absorb pressure, and try to hit Auxerre on the break. Their ability to score the first goal and protect leads this season will likely want them to come out early, forcing Auxerre into mistakes and capitalizing on quick transitions. The pace and physical presence of Mama Baldé will be big to stretch the defense of Auxerre, while Faivre's creativity and set-piece ability offers another threat.

Historically, in clashes against Auxerre, the better side has always been Brest: the latter won 9 times out of 20 matches, while Auxerre won 5 times, with 6 matches ending in a draw.

Brest dominated recent meetings between the two sides, as they went unbeaten in the last 6 matches against Auxerre. In fact, they were pretty sound defensively during these matches, keeping Auxerre at bay with just a single conceded goal in the last three matches against this opponent. The two teams last faced each other in May 2023, where Brest secured a slender home win of 1-0 over the visitors.

Auxerre have had a bad season so far, and they are up against a real test in an organized and efficient Brest. While Auxerre does possess attacking threats that might cause some problems to Brest, their defensive frailties are likely to let them down once more. That solidarity, together with the capability of striking early in the game and controlling it, gives them a big advantage. Expect Brest to carry on their fine run of form with another hard-fought victory.

For the fact that Brest have opened the scoring first in four of their five games this season, with Auxerre's tendency to concede on time surely will see Brest open the scoring.

Also, recent Auxerre matches have been high-scoring, with 5 over 2.5 goals in their last 6 matches. This means that although Brest can open the game for Auxerre, they will also easily expose their attacking quality against the frailties of Auxerre's defense, thus probably seeing a similar outcome in this one.

• Away to Score First @ 2.03 Odds
• Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Odds
• Away Win @ 2.55 Odds