Saul Alvarez vs Jaime Munguia Prediction: The champion will win on points

In the early morning of 5 May, Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez will defend all his belts in the second middleweight (up to 76.2 kg). The contender is his compatriot, undefeated Jaime Munguia.

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez is already a legendary boxer, and he started winning belts since 2011. He is still on the move, he is moving opponents at once, but he had some failures. These include a loss to Floyd Mayweather (Canelo was still young at the time), a loss to Dmitry Bivol (in the heavier weight class) and a controversial trilogy with Gennady Golovkin.

At his weight right now, Alvarez is the real king. He had two fights last year, and both times he won convincing victories on points over John Ryder and Jermell Charlo. In the fight with Munguia, Canelo is the predictable favourite, and there is no reason to believe that the fight will end otherwise.

Jaime Munguia is a dangerous boxer and has deservedly earned the right to fight for titles. In his career there have been no defeats yet, almost always he wins by knockout, and among the opposition there were some pretty serious guys - Liam Smith, Brandon Cook, Dennis Hogan, Sergey Derevyanchenko. And the fight with Derevyanchenko turned out to be so tough that many specialised media called it the ‘Fight of the Year 2023’. In his last fight Jaime finished John Ryder.

Munguia is younger than Alvarez, taller and a good puncher, but that doesn't stop experts from considering him an underdog, as he is inferior to the champion in skills, arsenal, speed and fight IQ. And Canelo himself is very serious.

We agree that Alvarez is a big favourite in this fight, but we don't really believe in a knockout. Canelo is not used to fighting taller opponents, he will be in his style to close in and put his opponent on the short side. But it's been a long time since Saul has won by knockout - the last man he managed to knock out was Caleb Plante back in 2021. But then Alvarez had to get the finish (he got it only in the eleventh round), because according to the judges' notes he was losing.