Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction: Steelers expected to cover the spread

The Pittsburgh Steelers are set to face the Buffalo Bills on Sunday evening in the AFC Wild Card Round at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. The Steelers enter this game on a three-game winning streak, while the Buffalo Bills boast a five-game winning streak. Let's assess the teams' recent form, analyze the betting matchup, and make a prediction.

The Buffalo Bills concluded the season with an 11-6 record, securing the top spot in the AFC East after a victory over the Miami Dolphins. The Bills faced a challenging start, standing at 5-5 midseason, but they rallied impressively, winning six of their last seven games. Notable victories in their final regular-season stretch included triumphs over the Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers (away), Dallas Cowboys, and Kansas City Chiefs.

Offensively, the Bills are averaging 26.5 points per game, featuring 244.4 passing yards and 130.1 rushing yards per game. Quarterback Josh Allen has been a key contributor, amassing 4,306 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. Running back James Cook has rushed for 1,122 yards and two touchdowns, while wide receiver Stefon Diggs has recorded 107 receptions for 1,183 yards and eight scores.

Defensively, the Bills have allowed an average of 18.3 points per game this season. As they head into the upcoming contest, the Bills have displayed dominance at Highmark Stadium, winning each of their last nine games following a road win. Additionally, they have covered the spread in four of their last five home games when playing with a rest disadvantage.

The Pittsburgh Steelers finished the season with a 10-7 record, securing the third spot in the AFC North. Despite a challenging journey, they managed to sneak into the playoffs, winning crucial games against the Baltimore Ravens, Seattle Seahawks, and Cincinnati Bengals. Their road performance was commendable, boasting a 5-3 record away from home. Coach Tomlin played a pivotal role in guiding the team to success.

Offensively, the Steelers are averaging 17.9 points per game with 186.1 passing yards and 118.2 rushing yards per game. Mason Rudolph, with 719 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions, has been at the helm for the Steelers this season. Running back Najee Harris has contributed significantly with 1,035 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, while wide receiver George Pickens has caught 63 passes for 1,140 yards and five touchdowns.

Defensively, the Steelers have allowed an average of 19.1 points per game this season. Heading into the upcoming matchup, the Steelers have shown strength on the road, winning each of their last six road games following a Division game. They have also covered the spread in seven of their last eight games played on the East Coast. However, it's worth noting that the Steelers have lost the first half in each of their last six games as underdogs against AFC East opponents.

The Buffalo Bills enter the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the NFL, while the Pittsburgh Steelers, although having struggled at times during the season, managed to secure the last seed in the AFC. Despite their challenges, the Steelers are led by one of the best head coaches in the NFL, adding an element of strength to their lineup. The Bills, winners of the AFC East, demonstrated solid performance at home with a 7-2 record this season.

Analyzing the matchup, it's challenging to find many positives for the Pittsburgh Steelers, especially given the Bills' recent form. However, the Bills have not dominated their opponents, winning by 10 points in only two of their last 13 games. Additionally, the Bills have shown vulnerability to turnovers, which could be a crucial factor for the Steelers in keeping the game close.

While the game is challenging to predict due to the large spread, the coaching advantage with the Steelers and the Bills' occasional struggles with ball security contribute to a complex scenario. Despite the difficulties, the prediction leans towards the Pittsburgh Steelers, anticipating a closely contested game for both teams.